Resignation?

A long time ago, I did freelance work for investment advisers to large pension funds. Their work focused on macro issues--interest rates, oil prices, stuff like that. Most of what I did was grunt work, but every once in a while, I'd have an idea they'd ask me to write up. The best of these was a prediction that a surprisingly large number of members of Congress and the Senate would not run for re-election. There had been a change in the campaign finance law. After that race, elected officials would no longer be allowed to take their warchests as personal income once they left office.

I turned out to be right. The resignation rate was unprecedentedly high.

When we're talking about our 21 little senators, there's good reason to think that a number of them will bail rather than face voters on Iraq. Markos links to an analyst who points out that you can't believe what sitting senators say about their reelection plans.

Does Warner really want to talk about Iraq? Does he really want to debate some Webb clone? Does Stevens really want to hear about the TUBEZ from some 50 year old whipper snapper? Being a retired senator is living a very good life. A campaign with an energized opposition, when you're pushing 80, not so much. If we can get candidates in place, seats will become open seats.